It occurs to me that there may be a smarter way to approach this, by the way.

[ Even though they've pretty much decided, Ciel thinks that especially with their "true" target tonight, there's a chance he could be protected, so... ]

With how the medical team works, they're more likely to pick someone quite in danger, correct? And tonight, that could be K, though I still doubt they would take the risk with leaving Missile unprotected for a night. So just from a tactical standpoint, wouldn't it be wiser for us to technically choose Kaoru, since we know they're paired? If I understand the rules correctly, this would mean that if K was protected for some reason, we could still wake up Kaoru and at least have one for the night instead of no one like we would if we had picked K. If they're not protected, it would hardly matter, but just in case.